Renouf Mediation

Renouf Mediation

Andrew Marr, Mediation, Corbyn and the Maybot

I was fortunate to attend the Airmic Conference (discussing mediation - amongst other things) and to be in the audience in Birmingham just a few days after the General Election to hear Andrew Marr's thoughts on the outcome and the campaigns themselves. I was interested to read in the Times that the Government had been consulting William Ury, author of the seminal work "Getting to Yes" on interest based negotiation. It is interesting to speculate whether the Government (or Parliament) needs a mediated outcome between the UK and EU or between those advocating very loud positions within the UK. However before that issue distracts this link takes you to YouTube but in brief his analysis / predictions:


• Key Fact: Tories won and are only party who can form Government
• Key Fact: there will be a Supply and Confidence Agreement with DUP (but they must be very careful re Good Friday agreement)
• Key Fact: Scots Tories will vote with English Tories or be lynched whatever views about social conservatism of DUP
• Ruth Davison – best charismatic Tory politician but is in wrong place (MSP)
• Philip Hammond – was most definitely going to be sacked
• Boris – endlessly ambitious and has a team in place from last time
• Corbyn – everyone overlooked the fact that his entire career has been “campaigning” – against everything but it is his element (and not that of the MayBot)
• Key Fact: Tories do not want an election and know that they will be annihilated. Anyone (Boris) who challenges that will also be lynched
• “Will sort out the mess”: Theresa May will survive (because they don’t want an election) and will remain until Brexit negotiations conclude
• Brexit – there will be a big theatrical row in the negotiations in the summer about money but “don’t panic – they will sort it out - probably” (says Andrew Marr)
• Brexit – we will definitely leave the single market
• Brexit – we will probably stay in the customs union (and if this is the case “What is the point of Liam Fox?”)
• Brexit – immigration. The “tens of thousands” will actually not come to pass but business / industry will press the economic case and a series of deals on visa quotas will be sorted out. (addressing the borders / sovereignty issue
• Brexit – ECJ: a “sovereignty issue” and Govt can’t step back but there could be a fudge with a hybrid Court of some sort with Euro + UK Supreme Court members.
And David Davis the sensible dark horse for 2020??

 

 

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